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Virtual trades in Ontario's day-ahead market win when we see tomorrow more clearly than the market does. Each section below is one piece of that picture, forecast before the 10:00 EPT cutoff and scored after.
Ontario demand, day ahead
Sunday 27 September: We expect demand 216 MW below IESO's forecast on average, furthest apart at 11 pm.
Forward test of model v2 starts scoring when its first forecast's actuals are published.
Where IESO misses
IESO's day-ahead forecast ran 153 MW above actual demand over the last two weeks.
In 14.9% of hours its Ontario number didn't match the sum of its own area forecasts.
Wind, solar, commitment and settlement forecasts join the desk as each one earns a forward record.