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Zones and forecast areas

IESO runs ten electrical zones and forecasts demand for four areas built from them. Virtual trades settle in nine zones, with Bruce folded into Southwest. Figures below cover the last 14 days, using IESO's forecast as it stood at each day's cutoff.

Where IESO's forecast missed

Hover or tab to a zone. Boundaries are IESO's approximate zonal map.

What stands out

IESO's day-ahead forecast ran 153 MW above actual demand on average.
IESO missed by 333 MW per hour on average.
In 14.9% of hours, IESO's Ontario forecast did not equal the sum of its own four area forecasts.
Using IESO's area sum instead would have missed by 313 MW per hour.
IESO missed most in hour ending 5 (EST), by 516 MW on average.

By forecast area

IESO forecast error by area, last 14 days
Area	Share of load	Mean error	Typical miss
Northwest	3%	+3 MW	22 MW
Northeast	8%	+62 MW	72 MW
Southeast	53%	+6 MW	164 MW
Southwest	36%	−51 MW	173 MW

Mean error is actual minus IESO's area forecast; negative means IESO forecast too much.