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Sunday 27 September

Issued before the cutoff

We expect demand 216 MW below IESO's forecast on average, furthest apart at 11 pm (375 MW below).

Issued: 9:58 am EDT
IESO version: 5:20 am EDT
Weight on our model: 30% from 44 known days

Hourly demand, hour ending (EST)

IESO forecast
IESO area sum
Our forecast
Shaded: our adjustment to IESO

Our forecast starts from the sum of IESO's four area forecasts and moves toward our own Kumo forecast by the weight shown above.

Show the numbers

Hourly forecasts
Hour ending	IESO	IESO area sum	Ours	Ours minus IESO
1 am	13,129 MW	13,134 MW	12,866 MW	−263 MW
2 am	12,892 MW	12,909 MW	12,698 MW	−194 MW
3 am	12,627 MW	12,631 MW	12,462 MW	−165 MW
4 am	12,433 MW	12,433 MW	12,275 MW	−158 MW
5 am	12,377 MW	12,368 MW	12,241 MW	−136 MW
6 am	12,528 MW	12,533 MW	12,397 MW	−131 MW
7 am	12,727 MW	12,736 MW	12,663 MW	−64 MW
8 am	13,207 MW	13,237 MW	13,041 MW	−166 MW
9 am	13,578 MW	13,603 MW	13,455 MW	−123 MW
10 am	13,846 MW	13,870 MW	13,742 MW	−104 MW
11 am	14,041 MW	14,045 MW	13,953 MW	−88 MW
noon	14,341 MW	14,369 MW	14,301 MW	−40 MW
1 pm	14,544 MW	14,560 MW	14,344 MW	−200 MW
2 pm	14,755 MW	14,763 MW	14,517 MW	−238 MW
3 pm	15,077 MW	15,074 MW	14,783 MW	−294 MW
4 pm	15,604 MW	15,613 MW	15,337 MW	−267 MW
5 pm	16,169 MW	16,223 MW	15,845 MW	−324 MW
6 pm	16,351 MW	16,368 MW	15,982 MW	−369 MW
7 pm	16,441 MW	16,492 MW	16,079 MW	−362 MW
8 pm	16,149 MW	16,195 MW	15,871 MW	−278 MW
9 pm	15,491 MW	15,515 MW	15,298 MW	−193 MW
10 pm	14,739 MW	14,722 MW	14,407 MW	−332 MW
11 pm	14,264 MW	14,290 MW	13,889 MW	−375 MW
midnight	13,716 MW	13,700 MW	13,391 MW	−325 MW

Forward test so far

Scoring starts when actual demand for the first forecast issued after the freeze is published, around 8 am EST the next day. Model v2 was frozen at 4:34 am EDT on 2026-09-26; nothing about it can change during the test.

See the full forward record