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Tuning replay

The same model replayed over the days it was chosen on. Useful for seeing how it behaves, but not evidence: the configuration was selected on these days.

How it compares

Our forecast: 318 MW
IESO: 399 MW
IESO area sum: 366 MW
IESO + recent bias: 341 MW

Mean absolute error over 44 days (2026-08-12 to 2026-09-24). Tests on this window are optimistic because the model was chosen here.

Pairwise comparisons
Method	Against	Lower error	95% range of the gain	p-value	Days better	Verdict
Our forecast	IESO	20.3%	46 MW to 122 MW	< 0.001	75%	Better
IESO area sum	IESO	8.3%	26 MW to 41 MW	< 0.001	86%	Better
IESO + recent bias	IESO	14.4%	16 MW to 115 MW	0.054	57%	No clear difference
Our forecast	IESO + recent bias	6.8%	-1 MW to 40 MW	0.058	59%	No clear difference

Mean error so far

IESO
IESO area sum
IESO + recent bias
Our forecast

Running mean absolute error, day by day. Lower is better.

Show the numbers

Running mean absolute error
Day	Ours	IESO	Area sum	Bias-corrected
2026-08-12	705 MW	746 MW	705 MW	746 MW
2026-08-13	556 MW	605 MW	556 MW	605 MW
2026-08-14	432 MW	478 MW	432 MW	478 MW
2026-08-15	388 MW	421 MW	388 MW	421 MW
2026-08-16	387 MW	429 MW	387 MW	429 MW
2026-08-17	383 MW	416 MW	383 MW	416 MW
2026-08-18	460 MW	496 MW	460 MW	496 MW
2026-08-19	441 MW	478 MW	441 MW	478 MW
2026-08-20	408 MW	470 MW	433 MW	442 MW
2026-08-21	381 MW	441 MW	406 MW	415 MW
2026-08-22	374 MW	442 MW	404 MW	399 MW
2026-08-23	370 MW	433 MW	400 MW	385 MW
2026-08-24	359 MW	428 MW	395 MW	376 MW
2026-08-25	345 MW	423 MW	390 MW	357 MW
2026-08-26	327 MW	415 MW	381 MW	343 MW
2026-08-27	324 MW	402 MW	369 MW	346 MW
2026-08-28	321 MW	409 MW	377 MW	339 MW
2026-08-29	331 MW	424 MW	393 MW	343 MW
2026-08-30	332 MW	434 MW	401 MW

Who was closer, day by day

Hover or tab through the days for details.

Thursday 24 September: forecasts and what happened

IESO forecast
IESO area sum
Our forecast
Actual demand

Show the numbers

Hourly values for 2026-09-24
Hour ending	Actual	Ours	IESO	Area sum
1 am	13,564 MW	13,246 MW	13,456 MW	13,456 MW
2 am	13,554 MW	13,068 MW	13,273 MW	13,273 MW
3 am	13,333 MW	12,943 MW	13,097 MW	13,097 MW
4 am	13,222 MW	12,948 MW	13,123 MW	13,123 MW
5 am	13,574 MW	13,240 MW	13,881 MW	13,435 MW
6 am	14,705 MW	14,230 MW	14,832 MW	14,321 MW
7 am	15,788 MW	15,369 MW	15,340 MW	15,340 MW
8 am	15,893 MW	15,473 MW	15,512 MW	15,512 MW
9 am